Enrollment projections for the Easton schools show a slow but steady rise over the next decade after years of decline. The 2008 Great Recession precipitated the downward trajectory, along with an aging and decreasing population in Easton and statewide.
History suggests unexpected world events can disrupt expectations. The Covid pandemic dramatically illustrates the point. A decade of sluggish housing prices and sales reversed course in 2020 as families sought to escape the confines of city living and move to the suburbs. House prices soared and inventory plummeted.
Between 2007 to 2020, student enrollment in the Easton Public Schools fell from 1,178 to 882 students, according to a demographic study by statistician Dr. Peter M. Prowda. Enrollment rebounded to 903 students in 2023 and is projected to grow by 234 students over the next 10 years to reach an estimated 1,137 students by 2033. According to Prowda, total enrollment is expected to increase by 31 students in 2024-25, this school year.
School Superintendent Dr. Jason McKinnon supplied an overview of Prowda’s report (see memo below), to the Easton Board of Education late last year as a guide for the years to come. Enrollment projections are an important budgeting tool, the report states. Easton schools anticipate a small budget increase as a result of enrollment and student needs, specifically in pre-kindergarten, the report states.
“The incoming kindergarten class is smaller than last year,” said Easton Board of Education chair Randy Hicks. “Part of the challenge is that more people want to move here, but there is low inventory. They can’t find a home here.”
The Prowda report expected 95 kindergartners, but the number is hovering around 80, he said. Connecticut home sales have declined more than five percent year-over-year in the face of high mortgage rates and rising prices. The average existing home price in the state hit a new record of $426,900 in June. Year-to-date, new listings are down 5.4 percent and median prices are up 11 percent.
Easton housing inventory is even more extreme, with the available housing stock continuing a steep decline as house prices soar to unprecedented heights, as the charts supplied by Taciane Batista show.
Another factor is that the Connecticut Board of Education changed the rules for kindergarten enrollment eligibility. Children now must be 5 years old by Sept. 1 rather than the previous Jan. 1.
“Jason is accommodating them if their child turns 5 in October,” Hicks said. “A change in our student makeup is that there are a lot more children identified as having special education needs. The number of students identified as needing services is approaching 20% of the population and has doubled in my time on the board.”
Hicks has served on the Easton Board of Education for 10 years and was elected chairman in 2022. He and his wife, Gina, moved to Easton in 2005. Their youngest child, Katherine, is entering her freshman year at Joel Barlow High School, their middle child, Ryan, will be a senior at Fairfield College Preparatory School, and their oldest child, Jackson, is starting his second year at West Point.
With regard to the special needs increase, Hicks said, “We fall in the middle of the state. The situation is not unique to Easton. “Last year we went back to the town because the special education budget exceeded what was budgeted by $1 million.
“We’re pretty adept at hiring replacement teachers. It’s harder to hire paraprofessionals who are not certified teachers but take directions from behavioral specialists and teachers to implement individual education plans. It truly takes a village to administer. Covid added an additional strain on the system,” he said.
Enrollment at Helen Keller Middle School remains flat to going down and is expected to continue for another year and then creep back up. When the new Samuel Staples Elementary School opened in 2003, it was built to accommodate plus or minus 900 students, Hicks said.
The population has trended lower, hovering in the 600s range. This affords space for growth and special education PPT (parent, pupil teacher) meetings, Hicks said. The availability of more classrooms also allows for smaller class sizes.
When the overall enrollment numbers were trending lower a decade ago, some discussion ensued about closing Keller. However, it doesn’t make sense to close the school, according to Hicks.
“Once a school closes, it’s uneconomical to reopen it,” he said. “Middle schoolers are bigger than elementary students, and there are other economic social parameters that make it a bad idea.”
Consistent enrollment is good, according to Hicks. Rapidly rising enrollment pinches budgets while declining enrollment leads to the loss of less tenured teachers. Slow, steady growth is the expected trend for Easton schools in the coming years. The outlook is promising.
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